Further to these posts,
it looks like some trial ballooning is going by a certain national newspaper that takes quite an editorial stance in a supposed news story):
Canada must [?!?] respond to Mali’s call to arms
The mustering has begun. African nations are being asked to commit troops to help Mali take back its north from Islamists. European nations are making plans for a training mission. France is offering surveillance drones. The U.S. backs intervention.
Canada will soon face a decision. Stephen Harper’s government won’t send fighting troops, but it will have to decide if it will send some kind of military assistance. That could include perhaps, after Afghanistan, another contingent of trainers to help foreign troops fight a dusty counterinsurgency war.
The request will come, from allies and others. Canada has a history in Mali. Until a coup in March, Mali was one of Canada’s biggest foreign-aid recipients. The Canadian Forces have played a major role in training Mail’s military, in regular officer training, and sending Special Forces trainers. Now, with a mission being planned, Mr. Harper’s government would find it hard to refuse to provide some help…
Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has said Canada is not contemplating a military mission – but then no Western country is planning to send combat soldiers, beyond a few Special Forces troops to help plan operations. Mali’s government wants to be seen to take the lead, backed by African troops…
All I can say is be very careful what one gets into, and how deeply–see below for all sorts of uncertainties. And with so many other players involved how necessary would any Canadian military participation be? As for those other players…
1) Africans:
Mali war plan to be ready within weeks: AU
An African plan for military intervention in Mali to help government troops reclaim territory from Islamist militants will be ready within weeks, the head of the African Union (AU) said on Wednesday [Oct. 24]…
The AU asked the Security Council in June to back military intervention. The council asked for a detailed operation plan within a deadline of a little over six weeks from October 12 [in a Chapter VII resolution–i.e. not peacekeeping].
“The Security Council has asked us to produce a plan within 45 days - that will be done within 45 days,” Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Chairwoman of the AU Commission, told Reuters in an interview after ministers opened a meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.
Western diplomats had expressed concern that the AU’s request for U.N. backing in June had lacked the necessary details, while others have voiced serious reservations about the ability of ECOWAS to tackle the northern Islamists anytime soon…
In July, the AU said it hoped military intervention in Mali would be a last resort. But on Wednesday Dlamini-Zuma spoke of an “early” military operation that could run alongside negotiations.
“We are working … to finalize the joint planning for the early deployment of an African-led international military force to help Mali recover the occupied territories in the North,” she told the opening of the PSC meeting…
Some envoys predict that it could be months before any kind of plan is put in motion and troops are trained and in place.
“One plan is ready, and the other one will be ready because work has already started,” Dlamini-Zuma said…
Plus:
3,200 African troops needed to fight rebels, Islamist militants in Mali, official says
The African Union on Wednesday pledged to mobilize an African military force to battle al-Qaida-affiliated groups controlling northern Mali.
African foreign ministers meeting at the African Union headquarters in Ethiopia agreed to write a final operational plan for the African-led force by the end of the month, as well as calling for arms and equipment to be provided for Mali’s army from members and international partners.
Kadre Desire Ouedraogo, the president of the Economic Community of West African States, told The Associated Press after Wednesday’s closed-door meeting that roughly 3,200 troops would be needed.
Western officials have said the planned African-led military offensive is unlikely to begin before next year [emphasis added] — despite growing concern about the terrorist threat militants there pose to the continent and the rest of the world…
2) More broadly:
The Whiff of Conflict Grows in Mali
A military strike to recapture Mali’s Islamist-held north is growing more likely, according to Western powers, regional bodies and the United Nations — a pronounced shift after months of hesitation and hopes that negotiations might end what is now seen as a far-reaching jihadist threat.
In recent weeks, for the first time, a broad-based international consensus has formed that war could soon be waged in the vast desert and savanna of northern Mali, an area roughly the size of France. Planning for such an operation remains embryonic. Who would take part? When would it occur? Who would command it [emphasis added]?
These basic details have yet to be worked out, officials conceded…
“There is no alternative,” said Jack Christofides, a top official in the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations, which is playing a leading role in planning a possible operation [emphasis added–a Good Thing?]. “For some of these more radical groups” occupying northern Mali, he added, “it’s going to take military force.”
As many as 7,000 to 10,000 soldiers may be needed [emphasis added] to take back and hold the north, United Nations officials have said, and the barriers to compiling such a force are evident…
…
Plus:
Panetta: Cannot let al-Qaida hide in N. Africa
Senior U.S. defense leaders are working with allies on a plan to deal with al-Qaida- linked militants in Mali and elsewhere in the North Africa region, with American assistance likely to center on intelligence and logistical support [emphasis added] and not troops on the ground.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told reporters at the Pentagon Wednesday that the U.S. must work with nations in the region to ensure that al-Qaida has no place to hide and expand its capabilities.
Panetta provided no details on what the U.S. would be willing to do, and officials say no final decisions have been made. But senior Defense Department leaders have been in France for the recent meetings on the matter, including assistant defense secretary Michael Sheehan and deputy assistant secretary Amanda Dory. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson was also at the Paris talks, which began on Monday [Oct. 22]…
Alles klar?
Mark Collins is a prolific Ottawa blogger
3 Responses to “Mark Collins - Canadian Forces for Mali? And All Sorts of International Activity”
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October 25th, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Alternate title:
“Onto Timbuktu?”
Mark Collins
October 26th, 2012 at 8:36 am
Algeria now onside:
‘Algeria has given its tacit approval for an Africa-led military intervention in northern Mali to rout Islamist militants despite reservations the operation could spill over into its territory and neighbouring countries, Algerian and French sources said.
Africa’s biggest country and a top oil and gas exporter shares a 2,000 km (1,242 mile) border with Mali and sees itself as the major regional power, wary of any outside interference.
It fears military action in Mali could push al Qaeda militants back into southern Algeria as well as triggering a refugee and political crisis, especially among displaced Malian Tuaregs heading north to join tribes in Algeria.
Although Algiers would not be able to veto an operation, it would be diplomatically risky for African countries backed by Western powers to intervene in Mali without Algeria’s consent, especially as the conflict could drag on for many months.
However, after weeks of diplomatic cajoling led by former colonial power France, Algiers has now reluctantly agreed that foreign troops will be needed to eradicate the Islamist threat. It continues to rule out any direct support to the mission.
“At the end of the day, we won’t oppose a military intervention in Mali as long as foreign troops are not stationed on our soil,” an Algerian source informed about discussions on Mali said…’
Mark Collins
October 29th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
And the EU:
‘Al-Qaida Threat
EU Weighs Options for Helping Mali
The European Union wants to help the Malian army recapture the renegade north from terrorists with a military mission. But the French and the Americans have already been operating in the region for years without success. Can EU intervention really make a difference?..
When US observers visited a military outpost in northern Mali, they described it as a picture of misery: “Living conditions on the base are … harsh. Meals for the troops consists of sandy rice with bean sauce. Meat is extraordinarily hard to come by.” The situation for deployed troops is “considerably worse,” the observers’ report continues. “Lacking shelter, the troops sleep under their vehicles, and often run short of drinking water.”
Mission Options
Now these very soldiers are to be trained, partly by Bundeswehr instructors, and brought to a level at which they can prevail against the heavily armed desert combatants. Military officials and security experts in Brussels are working feverishly on preparations for the mission, which could consist of one of three likely variants:
An advisory mission, known as EUSEC in the jargon of Brussels experts. Its goal would be to instruct Malian officers and noncommissioned officers at three military schools, including one in the city of Gao in the north, which is currently in the hands of the Islamists. This would require an estimated several dozen EU military trainers. Another aspect would include professionalizing the work of the general staff.
A training mission (EUTM), which would require sending some 150 instructors to Mali for at least two years. Each of them would train a battalion (up to 800 soldiers) in one of four locations. The Europeans are also considering training an elite unit that could spearhead the fight in the north.
A training mission with involvement in combat operations (EUTM+) that would accompany the Malian units into the war zone after their training is complete. The EU would deploy 400 to 500 of its own troops for this purpose. According to the EU, it would constitute “a military presence in the field, with direct involvement in the fighting.”
Potential Failure
The problem with this is that EU governments want to minimize the risk for their soldiers. But this modest deployment would have “little effect in the short term,” warn experts with the European External Action Service…’
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/eu-weighs-options-for-helping-mali-fight-al-qaida-a-864054.html
Mark Collins